The Indian Wells organisers like to refer to the tennis extravaganza in the desert as “The 5th Slam”, Taylor Fritz is here to defend his 2022 title won in front of his Netflix cameras.
For those who haven’t seen the behind-the-scenes Netflix documentary, “Break Point”, Taylor Fritz was being followed for the series when he went through the pain barrier to beat Rafael Nadal in the final at Indian Wells last year. The American will be trying his best to defend those 1000 ranking points this week.
Indian Wells is the first ATP1000 series event of the season and the first half of the “Sunshine Double” with Miami. Predicted weather conditions for the start of the week look to be refuting that somewhat, but regardless, it is an extremely valuable tournament for the players.
However, the world #1 will not be present. Novak Djokovic has had to withdraw from the event on the day before the draw.
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ATP Indian Wells Betting Tips
Will be added after the draw and odds are revealed.
Event In Focus: ATP Indian Wells
The analysis grid this week doesn’t cover the whole field. The sixteen seeded players are covered alongside other fancied players from outside of the top 16 seedings.
Rankings & 12-month Form
The withdrawal of Novak Djokovic from the draw certainly opens things up in terms of the data analysis. In his wake, Daniil Medvedev becomes the pick of the numbers over the last 12 months. His return of serve data is a clear best above everyone else, perhaps other than Carlos Alcaraz.
The young Spaniard had to withdraw from his previous tournament, scheduled to be in Acapulco last week, and he has concerns over an injury he suffered in Rio de Janeiro the previous week. That makes him a doubt here but on his best form he is a clear threat as his data suggests.
There are a number of other players who sit just under Medvedev and Alcaraz as people who have something going for them. Jannik Sinner’s games won record puts him in world class territory, with Cameron Norrie only just short of that. The Brit has also produced this record over a huge number of matches, proving that it is no fluke. Meanwhile, Yibing Wu has had a great 12 months on the main tour, winning a title last time out in Dallas, becoming the first Chinese player to do so, and this has inflated his win percentage to 79% across his 14 matches so far.
Playing Styles and Players To Avoid
What is interesting about compiling these charts is that they sometimes bear out interesting trends and the way that the players play their tennis.
Hubert Hurkacz has claim to be the best server on tour at the moment. However, he cannot match this with his return game, hence his ranking on the outskirts of the top ten. If he is on a good return day though, the Pole is an exceptionally dangerous player in the draw. Meanwhile, Alex De Minaur is one of the few players at the top of the game who doesn’t manage an 80% serve win rate but he has one of the best return game win percentages in the whole ATP tour.
Potential players who could be vulnerable here include Australian Open semifinalist Karen Khachanov and US Open semifinalist Frances Tiafoe. Though both men have clearly shown that they can rise to the big occasion recently on hard courts, they don’t appear to have the consistency over a year to hit the top of the game.
Hard Court & Other Form Data
Taking into account the surface type in Indian Wells we are able to break down the players’ career performance on hard courts on the ATP Tour. These records include qualifying rounds. With the best players in the world here it was worth compiling the players’ recent record against the Top 10, and also their win/loss records in North America, as sometimes players play particularly well in certain conditions.
The three best hard court players across their careers span across the lifespan of a tennis player. Carlos Alcaraz has made a world cass start, Daniil Medvedev is in the prime of his career, and Andy Murray’s record still stands up in the twilight of his career.
In terms of other players to watch on hard courts, Alexander Zverev has a good record over a number of years and, again, Cameron Norrie’s career numbers are improving to a very high level. De Minaur should also be considered something of a hard court specialist. Frances Tiafoe’s numbers are surprisingly poor on the surface.
Important Form Points
Casper Ruud, Pablo Carreno Busta, and Matteo Berrettini don’t have great recent form figures.
Karen Khachanov hasn’t had a win vs a Top 10 player in his last ten attempts, and JJ Wolf has never beaten a top ten player in his career so far. Berrettini’s record against the best is poor as well, but Holger Rune and Taylor Fritz have raised their game in the toughest matches so far.
The only significant information from the North American data comes from those with small sample sizes, which makes the information unreliable to read trends from. However, JJ Wolf seems something of a homebird with his data in North America lookign much better than abroad.
ATP Indian Wells Draw
Dubai has a 32-seed, 96-man draw. The 32 seeds wil be given a bye into the second round. The draw will be posted here once it has been conducted.
ATP Indian Wells Betting Tips
A full write-up of the tips selected wil be posted here once the tips are decided.