After a 4-1 day on Tuesday, I stepped aside on Wednesday and one of our newer NBA writers here at RotoBaller, Josh Wiesel, debuted with some solid picks of his own. Last night was a small slate, but I managed to cash my underdog teaser with Philly-Washington-Golden State and I should have bet on some dogs as both Washington and GSW won outright.
Tonight we have 10 games in the NBA and on a slate that big, I am always going to be able to find something I like! I’m only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too.
In this article, I’ll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, March 3rd.
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Thunder Dan’s NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 120-122-1
- Against the Spread: 58-61-1
- Game/Team Totals: 12-27
- Moneyline Parlay: 17-23
- Teasers: 30-11
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Chicago Bulls (+4) vs. Phoenix Suns (223 total)
The model loves the under here, but this total is already pretty low and it’s probably not factoring in the massive boost in efficiency that KD is going to give this Phoenix offense. Yes, the Bulls are playing better defense lately, but they also just gave up 115 points to Detroit and nearly blew a big lead in their last game.
The Suns are on the road here, but I think they’ll be too much for Chicago. KD was on a minutes limit in his debut but looked great in his 26 minutes pouring in 23 points on 10-15 shooting. Chicago doesn’t have anyone who can match up with him and won’t be able to play small ball with DDR at the four. They’ll have to put Patrick Williams on KD as Vucevic can’t guard him out on the perimeter and is a poor defender.
It’s not all about KD either, Devin Booker is finally looking like his old self and had 37 points against Charlotte last time out. CP3 can finally back off on offense and act as a distributor with two elite shooters in KD and Booker to pass to as well as a solid big man in Ayton in the pick-and-roll game.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Suns roll here, they are going to be really dangerous as they start to get more chemistry playing together.
The Pick: Suns -4 (-110)
New York Knicks (-2.5) @ Miami Heat (215 total)
This one should be an Eastern Conference slugfest and the model leans toward the under here, too. These teams have only faced off once so far this year with the Knicks earning a tough 106-104 win back on February 2nd.
New York is playing their absolute best basketball right now as they’ve won 7 straight games and 9 of their last 10. They’ve also been awesome on the road this year, going 20-10 ATS. Their +12.5 net rating over their last ten games is second only to the Bucks and both teams are well ahead of the rest of the league as far as their solid recent form.
As much as this feels like a trap, I can’t help but like the Knicks here and I want to ride them while they’re hot. I hate that the spread is 2.5 because this could go down to the wire. So instead of betting the money line at -140, I’m going to buy a half point and bet them at -2 so that a two-point win is a push and I don’t lose this bet on the hook.
The Pick: ALT SPREAD Knicks -2 (-125)
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Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers (227.5 total)
Time for an underdog pick, right? The Wolves started out as slight favorites here and this line is moving toward the Lakers. What are these bettors thinking? Since when do we trust the Lakers? I certainly don’t with LeBron out of the lineup as they have a -4.5 net rating this season and 6-10 record in the 16 games he has missed.
Minnesota leads the season series 1-0 and is coming off a big win over the Clippers on Tuesday night. At even money, I think they are well worth an investment here. Let’s not forget that the Lakers will be missing D’Angelo Russell, too, and they’ll be asking Anthony Davis to carry this team tonight against a deeper Minnesota team that can score in bunches.
The Pick: MIN ML (+100)
Favorite Money Line Parlay: DEN +BOS + PHX + SAC = (+308 DK)
Underdog TEASER (buying 8 points)
NOP +12, CHA +12, MIN +9.5 = (-120 DK)
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