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Golf betting tips and free bets: Three picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational including 125-1 longshot



THE big boys are out in force again for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the latest of the $20million super-events on the PGA Tour, with the winner picking up a cool $3.5million.

Open Champion Cameron Smith – down to fifth in the world rankings after his move to LIV – is the only member of the top twenty who will not be teeing it up at Bay Hill.


The Arnold Palmer Invitational takes place this week

World No 1 Jon  Rahm is, predictably, a warm favourite at a best-priced 13-2 to make it an incredible six wins from his last ten starts.

At just under 7,500 yards Bay Hill favours the big-hitters like Rahm and 2018 winner Rory McIlroy, who has proved his liking for the course by finishing in the top 15 in all  but one of his eight starts here. 

But with strong winds forecast for the first three days – and a winning score unlikely to reach double digits under par – it could prove more open than the bookies believe.


Hots hot: Scottie Scheffler, 9-1.

The defending champion did not seem too inconvenienced when the wind picked up in  the final round last year, adding weight to his claim that it blows harder and more often in his home state of Texas.

On a day when only four of the 77 players who made the cut broke par, Scheffler’s composed level par 72 was enough to get the job done, giving him the second of four victories by the start of April.

That included the Masters, and Scheffler has already successfully defended one title, with his Phoenix Open victory three weeks ago. He has a great chance of going back-to-back again.

Mid price: Keith Mitchell, 50-1.

The Chattanooga express finally broke into the top fifty of the world rankings with an impressive fifth place at the Genesis, and he has the talent to remain on an upward trajectory. 

That Genesis effort was his second top five in his last three starts – he was tied fourth at Pebble Beach – and two top tens at Bay Hill are further cause for encouragement.

Mitchell leads the PGA Tour in combined driving, the stat that pairs length and accuracy, and that could prove crucial in a week when hitting fairways will be no picnic.


Long shot: Lucas Herbert, 125-1.

The Aussie battler has been a personal favourite ever since he popped up at long odds to win  the Dubai Desert Classic three years ago, and he will enjoy the tough conditions more than most.

His four under par 68 was the best score of the day in the wind-lashed final round a year ago – Tyrrell Hatton was the only other player to break 70, and at 35-1 the 2020 winner was definitely on the short list as the mid price choice 

Herbert finished in a tie for seventh last year, and with the wind forecast to reach 35mph on Friday – and averaging out at around 20mph for the opening 54 holes – , he will fancy his chances of improving on his Bay Hill debut.


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