Jan 23, 2023; Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Holger Rune from Denmark during his round four match against Andrey Rublev from Russia on day eight of the 2023 Australian Open tennis tournament at Melbourne Park. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
- Rune vs de Minaur is the second semifinal at the Mexican Open Friday (11 pm ET)
- Rune, the higher ranked of the two, leads their head-to-head 2-0 and is the favorite in the Rune vs de Minaur odds
- Scroll down to see whether de Minaur has a shot on the slow Acapulco court in our Rune vs de Minaur prediction
Rune vs de Minaur, the late semifinal Friday at the Acapulco Open, is almost a clash of generations even though the Aussie Alex de Minaur is just four years older than Holger Rune, who is from Denmark. Rune is favored, but is he the best bet in our Rune vs de Minaur prediction Friday?
Rune vs De Minaur Odds
| Holger Rune (DEN)||-2.5 (-130)||-194||O 22.5 (-118)|
| Alex de Minaur (AUS)||+2.5 (-104)||+158||U 22.5 (-112)|
The Rune vs de Minaur odds favor Rune, at -194. De Minaur, who has never beaten Rune, is a +158 underdog. The total sets for the match has been set at 22.5. Odds as of March 3 at FanDuel.
Rune Gets By Shelton in Young-Gun Opener
Rune, who had been sidelined by a wrist concern since retiring during his second-round match in Rotterdam two weeks ago, looked to have a really tough draw on paper.
His opener was against American Ben Shelton – a year older, at 20, having spent some time in the US college system, but very much the future after a quarterfinal effort at the Australian Open.
It was a big-time match for a Monday at an ATP 500 tournament; he had to be up to it from the start.
And Rune was, defeating Shelton in three sets. After that, he lost just two games in his next two matches, with his 6-0, 6-2 win over Portugal’s Nuno Borges taking exactly an hour.
Holger Rune vs Ben Shelton for next 15 years pic.twitter.com/QBONhW6vqK
— Simon C 🚄 (@thetraintruther) February 28, 2023
Next up was Matteo Berrettini, the former world No. 6 who took a wild card into the tournament after Stefanos Tsitsipas withdrew. With that deal was a wild card for his younger brother Jacopo into the singles qualifying, and another for the pair into the doubles.
Berrettini, who hadn’t played since losing in five sets to Andy Murray in the first round of the Australian Open and was unseeded, found himself quickly down 0-4 to Rune late Thursday night.
After a 30-minute rain delay, he lost the first set 6-0, smashed his racquet – and retired a game later. He won just seven points. Total.
Led 6-0 1-0 by Holger Rune, Matteo Berrettini retires on injury.
Acapulco’s crowd booing him.
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) March 3, 2023
So a nice ride for Rune after that first hurdle.
Rune vs De Minaur Head-to-Head
|19 (April 29, 2003)||Age||24 (Feb. 17, 1999)|
|Gentofte, Denmark||Birthplace||Sydney, Australia|
|3||Career ATP Singles Titles||6|
|No. 9 (Jan. 30, 2023)||Career-Best Ranking||No. 15 (June 28, 2021)|
|No. 10||Current Ranking||No. 22|
|$3,312,824||Career Prize Money||$8,264,268|
|11-4||2022 Won/Loss Record||10-4|
Meanwhile, De Minaur was just doing what he always does: quietly snaking his way through a draw. This was a sweet draw, though.
Three Wins, Easy Peasy
First, de Minaur draws a 17-year-old local wild card. Then, he gets Berrettini’s younger brother, who had already done a lot getting through qualifying and then won on a retirement. The Aussie dropped one game.
Then, de Minaur faced Taro Daniel, a 30-year-old who had just pulled off the biggest win of his career in upsetting No. 2 seed Casper Ruud in a third-set tiebreak. At 6-2, 6-2, that was the “toughest” one for the Aussie leading into this semifinal.
Rune vs De Minaur Match History
|2022||Basel (R32)||Indoor Hard||6-2, 7-5||Rune|
|2022||Stockholm (SF)||Indoor Hard||4-6, 7-6 (1), 7-5||Rune|
The two previous meetings between these two came on indoor hard courts – particularly, in the case of Basel, a lightning-fast indoor hard court.
The conditions in Acapulco will be very different.
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Rune vs De Minaur Prediction
Without the firepower and top-level shotmaking ability of some of his opponents, de Minaur has forged a very good career from being quick, and determined, and consistent.
Those qualities will serve him well in the Rune vs De Minaur matchup, as Rune is somewhat more mercurial and, if his patience is tested, can make errors.
But with Carlos Alcaraz and Cameron Norrie withdrawing after the draw, Ruud out early, and two players who have never faced him (neither more accomplished) on the other side of the draw (Paul vs Fritz) with an ATP 500 title at stake, he will back himself.
Rune can play on clay; he is good on slower surfaces. Because he’s just … good, period.
If there is still a concern in the high humidity for his match fitness, the Dane can also wrap this one up in straight sets and avoid that even becoming a factor. We’re taking a quick win for Rune in our Rune vs De Minaur prediction.
Rune vs De Minaur Picks: Rune in Two Sets (+135)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She’s written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.