Nov 5, 2022; Forth Worth, TX, USA; Coco Gauff (USA) leaves the court after losing a match against Iga Swiatek (POL) on day six of the WTA Finals at Dickies Arena. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
- World No. 1 Iga Swiatek is the overwhelming favorite in the Dubai Tennis Championships semifinals
- She faces No. 5 seed Coco Gauff, who has never taken a set from her in five previous tries and Gauff is in a big underdog in the Swiatek vs Gauff picks
- Scroll down as we break down the matchup and look for possible value Swiatek vs Gauff odds
World No. 1 Iga Swiatek has bagelled and bread-sticked her way through draws during the WTA’s Middle East swing. In her career matches against Dubai Tennis Championships semifinal Coco Gauff, she has basically done the same in past Swiatek vs Gauff picks.
Swiatek vs Gauff Odds
| Iga Swiatek (POL)||-6.5 (-110)||-800||O 18.5 (-110)|
| Coco Gauff (USA)||+6.5 (-125)||+500||U 18.5 (-125)|
Swiatek is the heavy favorite in the Swiatek vs Gauff odds above at -800 odds. Gauff is the big underdog at +500. Odds as of February 23 at DraftKings.
Swiatek Steamrolling in Dubai
Picking up right where she left off in Doha, where she lost just five games in three matches and took the title, Swiatek is doing the exact same thing in Dubai at the bigger WTA 1000 tournament.
She went 6-1, 6-1 against Canadian Leylah Fernandez. Then 6-1, 6-0 over No. 14 seed Liudmila Samsonova.
2023 French Open Odds Tracker
And, as with Belinda Bencic in Doha, she didn’t even have to play a quarterfinal match as former No. 1 Karolina Pliskova, who had already won three matches this week, pulled out with a viral illness before their scheduled quarterfinal Thursday.
So, to sum up: two matches played; three games surrendered.
Swiatek vs Gauff Head-to-Head Stats
|21 (May 31, 2001)||Age||18 (March 13, 2004)|
|Warsaw, Poland||Birthplace||Delray Beach, Fla.|
|12||Career WTA Singles Titles||3|
|No. 1 (April 4, 2022)||Career-High Ranking||No. 4 (Oct. 24, 2022)|
|No. 1||Current Ranking||No. 6|
|$15,476,180||Career Prize Money||$5,932,683|
|12-2||2022 Won/Loss Record||12-2|
Gauff Hasn’t Dropped a Set
Gauff, who doesn’t turn 19 for another three weeks, hasn’t dropped a set this week. And she, too, benefited from a free pass.
The American dropped four games to Aliaksandra Sasnovich in her first match, after a first-round bye. Then Australian Open finalist Elena Rybakina, who had defeated Bianca Andreescu in her opener, fell by the way side with a lower back injury before their third-round match.
Gauff was impressive in defeating 28-year-old countrywoman Madison Keys, 6-2, 7-5 in the quarterfinals. We thought that one might well go the distance.
On the plus side, probably, she and partner Jessica Pegula fell in the doubles quarterfinals. They won in Doha last week, and the number of matches was accumulating. She’ll be fresher than she might have been.
Swiatek vs Gauff Match History
|2022||WTA Finals (RR)||Indoor Hard||6-3, 6-0||Swiatek|
|2022||San Diego (QF)||Outdoor Hard||6-0. 6-3||Swiatek|
|2022||French Open (F)||Outdoor Clay||6-1,6-3||Swiatek|
|2022||Miami (R16)||Outdoor Hard||6-3, 6-1||Swiatek|
|2021||Rome (SF)||Outdoor Clay||7-6 (3), 6-3||Swiatek|
Head-to-Head Outlook Grim
Swiatek and Gauff have played 10 sets – eight of them within the last year.
Swiatek has won them all. And only in their first-ever set did Gauff manage to scramble for more than three games.
You’d expect, given their ages, that this should become a great rivalry for the next decade. But right now, it’s a mismatch.
Swiatek is showing zero weaknesses at the moment. While Gauff’s weaknesses (the forehand, the second serve) are well known. And Swiatek will once again continue to pound on them. And when that happens, Gauff’s young age tends to show, and she gets a little panicky.
The world No. 1, who a year ago was beginning a 37-match win streak right around this time, is fairly inarguably an even better and more experienced player now.
Gauff’s level has not risen a ton from 2022. The same weaknesses persist.
But we’re reasonably sure that, unlike some of Swiatek’s opponents the last week or so, she will make the date and give it her all.
Swiatek vs Gauff Prediction
There isn’t much value in betting on a Swiatek win in the Swiatek vs Gauff odds. But there are some intriguing props that – assuming there’s no sudden drop-off in Swiatek’s form – look like good options.
Swiatek to win every set 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 sits at +275.
For Swiatek to win, but needing more than 18.5 games to do it (say, 6-3, 6-4 or better from Gauff) is possible at +110 but less likely than the under listed below.
Swiatek to break serve first, win the first set and win the match is at -250.
Swiatek vs Gauff Picks: Swiatek to win, and under 18.5 Games (+100)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She’s written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.