Jan 15, 2023; Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Daniil Medvedev of Russia hits a shot during a practice session at Melbourne Park. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
- No. 6 seed Daniil Medvedev meets unseeded Jannik Sinner in the Rotterdam Open final Sunday
- Medvedev holds a 4-0 career head-to-head vs Sinner
- Read on as we break down the matchup and make a prediction
Jannik Sinner is the underdog against a suddenly in-form Daniil Medvedev in the Rotterdam Open final Sunday (9:30 a.m. ET).
Sinner vs Medvedev Odds
|Jannik Sinner (ITA)||+2.5 (-112)||+144||O 22.5 (-118)|
| Daniil Medvedev (RUS)||-2.5 (-118)||-172||U 22.5 (-112)|
Odds as of Feb. 18 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
It’s not so surprising; Medvedev holds a 4-0 career head-to-head against the 21-year-old Italian. And, as it happens, all four of those previous meetings came on indoor hard courts.
As far back as Medvedev stands on the return, it’s hard to get much purchase even with a massive first serve.
So while Sinner has a good one, he won’t start on the front foot as he has against most of his opposition in the last two weeks. He’ll have to find other ways to win points in this final.
Sinner vs Medvedev Head-to-Head
|21 (Aug. 16, 2001)||Age||27 (Feb. 11, 1996)|
|San Candido, Italy||Birthplace||Moscow, Russia|
|7||Career ATP Singles Titles||15|
|)No. 9 (Nov. 1, 2021)||Career-Best Ranking||No. 1 (Feb. 28, 2022|
|No. 14||Current Ranking||No. 11|
|$6,935,067||Career Prize Money||$26,791,509|
|7-2||2022 Won/Loss Record||9-2|
Two Streaks – One Has to Give
Sinner comes into the final on an eight-match winning streak, after winning the ATP 250 in Montpellier last week. This is the first time he’s been unseeded at a tournament since the 2021 Rome Masters.
For his part, Medvedev is on an eight-match streak at ATP 500 tournaments (12 wins in his last 13 matches) after winning the ATP 500 in Vienna last fall.
After dropping out of the top 10 following the Australian Open last month, where he was defending finalist’s points, he’s back in the top 10 after his surprisingly easy win over Grigor Dimitrov in Saturday’s semifinals.
Sinner vs Medvedev Match History
|2022||Vienna (QF)||Indoor Hard||6-4, 6-2||Medvedev|
|2021||ATP Finals (RR)||Indoor Hard||6-0 6-7 (5) 7-6 (8)||Medvedev|
|2021||Marseille||Indoor Hard||6-2, 6-4||Medvedev|
|2020||Marseille||Indoor Hard||1-6 6-1 6-2||Medvedev|
Medvedev Easy-Peasy over Dimitrov
If Medvedev’s straight-sets win over defending champion Félix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals was an alarm bell, his 6-1, 6-2 dismantling of Grigor Dimitrov in their Saturday semifinal announced his return to a level of form that probably hadn’t really been seen since the devastation of his five-set loss to Rafael Nadal at the 2022 Australian Open.
He created 13 break-point chances against Dimitrov, and converted six of them. He saved 4-of-5 break points on his own serve. It just wasn’t a contest.
Sinner Gets Past Wild-Card Griekspoor
As for Sinner, he ran up against a local wild card in Tallon Griekspoor who, buoyed by the local support, played well above his ranking and gave Sinner a solid challenge.
The 7-5, 7-6 (5) Sinner win might well have gone three sets. And even those two sets took nearly two hours. He didn’t allow Griekspoor a single break point, but he himself only earned one in the entire match.
The difference was that he converted it.
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Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction
Two of the four previous encounters were close – notably, their meeting in the ATP Tour Finals in 2021.
But two were routine straight-sets victories by Medvedev,
If Sinner could struggle that much against a wild card ranked outside the top 50 on Saturday, he’s likely to have an even more difficult time against a player who has looked impossible to get through so far this week.
Since losing the first set of his opener against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – his first match since the Australian Open – Medvedev has rolled through three quality opponents in six sets. And only on one occasion did his opponent get more than two games.
That was the second against Auger-Aliassime, and in that set Auger-Aliassime was up a break, only to have Medevev rev his engine and fight right back.
Jannik Sinner on Final against Daniil Medvedev: “For sure it’s gonna be a tough challenge for me. I’ve never won against him. Me & my team need to talk about how I’ll beat him. I’m very happy I have a chance to play him. Hopefully I can make improvements from the last meetings.” pic.twitter.com/0KiQTD5iQM
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) February 18, 2023
Sinner might start to feel it, too, playing his ninth match in less than two weeks. Medvedev will make him hit ball after ball, make him run, and not allow him to dictate points in a way that would shorten the proceedings for him.
Still, Sinner is playing well enough that he should definitely make a match of it.
Also: when he reaches the final of a tournament, he’s 7-1.
Sinner vs Medvedev Pick: Medvedev in Two Sets (+140)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She’s written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.