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Purdue vs. Illinois prediction, odds, start time: 2023 college basketball picks, March 5 bets by proven model



The Big Ten wraps up its regular season slate on Sunday. A high-profile matchup is set for Mackey Arena, as the Illinois Fighting Illini visit the No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers. Illinois is 20-10 overall and 11-8 in Big Ten play following a double-overtime win over Michigan on Thursday. Purdue, meanwhile, is 25-5 overall and 14-5 in Big Ten games this season, leading the conference by multiple games.

Tip-off is at 12:30 p.m. ET in West Lafayette. Caesars Sportsbook lists Purdue as a 7.5-point favorite at home, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 139.5 in the latest Illinois vs. Purdue odds. Before you make any Purdue vs. Illinois picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.  

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 17 of the season 76-46 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Illinois vs. Purdue and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for Purdue vs. Illinois:

  • Illinois vs. Purdue spread: Purdue -7.5
  • Illinois vs. Purdue over/under: 139.5 points
  • Illinois vs. Purdue money line: Purdue -350, Illinois +275
  • ILL: The Fighting Illini are 10-9 against the spread in Big Ten games
  • PUR: The Boilermakers are 8-9-2 against the spread in Big Ten games
  • Illinois vs. Purdue picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Purdue Boilermakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Why Illinois can cover

Illinois brings balance and effectiveness on both ends of the floor. On offense, the Fighting Illini are in the top 20 of the nation in making 55.2% of 2-point shots, including a conference-leading mark of 53.4% against Big Ten opponents. Illinois is also No. 2 in the conference in free throw creation rate, and Purdue is outside the top 300 of the nation with a meager 15.3% turnover creation rate on defense. 

Defensively, Illinois is near the top of the Big Ten in nearly every category. Brad Underwood’s team leads the conference in 2-point percentage allowed (46.4%), block rate (13.4%), and assist rate allowed, and Illinois secures nearly 75% of available rebounds on the defensive glass. Purdue has ball security issues on offense, with the second-worst turnover rate (18.4%) in the Big Ten and the worst live-ball turnover rate (10.5%) in the conference.

Why Purdue can cover

Purdue’s profile is very strong this season, including the No. 2 efficiency mark in the Big Ten on both offense and defense. Star center Zach Edey is averaging 22.1 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game, leading the way for Purdue on both ends, and the Boilermakers dominate the glass. Purdue is No. 2 in the country with a 38.4% offensive rebound rate this season, and the Boilermakers lead the Big Ten with a 77.0% defensive rebound rate. Purdue moves the ball well on offense, generating an assist on more than 60% of field goals, and the Boilermakers are in the top three of the conference in free throw creation rate and 2-point shooting. 

On defense, Purdue leads the nation in free throw rate allowed, and opponents are shooting only 47.1% from 2-point range and 31.0% from 3-point range against the Boilermakers. Purdue should also benefit from the 3-point shooting weakness of Illinois, with the Illini making only 29.0% of attempts during conference play.

How to make Purdue vs. Illinois picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 141 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well nearly 60% of the time. You can get the model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Illinois vs. Purdue? And which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out. 

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