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UConn vs. Villanova prediction, odds: 2023 college basketball picks, March 4 best bets by proven model

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The No. 14 UConn Huskies and the Villanova Wildcats face off in prime time on Saturday. Wells Fargo Center hosts the Big East matchup in Philadelphia, and it serves as the final regular season contest for both teams. UConn is 23-7 overall, including a win over Villanova in late December, and 7-1 in the last eight games. Villanova is 16-14 overall and 10-9 in Big East games after six wins in the last seven contests.

Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Huskies as 2-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 138.5 in the latest UConn vs. Villanova odds. Before making any Villanova vs. UConn picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.  

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 17 of the season 76-46 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on UConn vs. Villanova and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for Villanova vs. UConn:

  • UConn vs. Villanova spread: UConn -2
  • UConn vs. Villanova over/under: 138.5 points
  • UConn vs. Villanova money line: UConn -140, Villanova +118
  • UConn: The Huskies are 9-10 against the spread in Big East games
  • NOVA: The Wildcats are 10-9 against the spread in Big East games
  • UConn vs. Villanova picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Villanova Wildcats vs. Connecticut Huskies

Why UConn can cover

UConn’s offense is electric this season. The Huskies have two standouts and elite team-based metrics. Junior forward Adama Sanogo leads the Big East with 17.2 points per game, and he adds 7.2 rebounds per contest. Sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins is a potential first round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, and he is in the top five of the Big East with 16.1 points per game. UConn is in the top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Huskies lead the country in offensive rebounding. UConn secures 39.2% of missed shots this season, and that jumps to 40.4% in conference games. 

The Huskies also lead the conference with 9.0 3-pointers per game, and UConn is in the top three of the Big East in assist percentage (61.9%), assists per game (17.4), free throw attempts (19.6 per game) and free throw accuracy (76.1%). Villanova is last in the conference with a 5.2% block rate, giving UConn an avenue to attack the rim without hesitation. 

Why Villanova can cover

Villanova is led by junior forward Eric Dixon, who has scored 49 points in the two games. Dixon is averaging 16.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game this season, and the Wildcats are also buoyed by the nation’s best free throw shooting. Villanova is shooting 82.9% from the free throw line, clearing the field by a wide margin, and UConn is dead-last in the Big East in free throw rate allowed. The Wildcats lead the Big East with only 10.3 turnovers per game, maximizing possessions in an effective manner. 

On defense, Villanova is No. 2 in the Big East in securing 74.8% of available rebounds, and opponents are shooting only 32.5% from 3-point range in Big East play. UConn commits a turnover on 18.9% of offensive possessions, further boosting Villanova’s potential defensive efficiency.

How to make UConn vs. Villanova picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 143 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time. You can get the model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Villanova vs. UConn? And which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out. 

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